I'm liking the Dolphins to win big over the Texans this weekend

trench1978 · Sep 1, 2003

I got the Dophins as 10.5 point favorites against the Texans about two weeks ago. I have no idea why the line was that low.

The reason I jumped on it was because I figured it should have been around 14. If the Texans were the home team, the Dolphins probably would have been about 8 point favorites. Add six to that to make the Dolphins the home team and you get the Fins at about 14 point favorites. 10.5 would have been a good spread if they were playing in a neutral setting. On sportsbetting.com, this spread has sky-rocketed to 14 (which is what it should have been all along).

In addition to the large difference in talent levels that these teams possess; I figure the Fins to be heavily motivated to win this game going away. They missed the playoffs last year, even though they were one of the best teams in the league (while Fiedler was healthy). They want to start this season off on the right foot at home against the a poor team and blow them out. I expect this game to be decided by 3-4 touchdowns.

I already bet it at 10.5, but if you guys can find a decent line anywhere, I'd bet it.

This is the only game that really stands out as a very solid bet week one.

Trench

olebillsbeater · Sep 2, 2003

I hate the texans more than anyone !

I hope they lose 1000000000000000000 to 0

BamaNut · Sep 2, 2003

LIKE THIS GAME ALSO. MY ONLY QUESTION IS: WHY IS THE OVER UNDER ONLY 35 pts?????

BAMANUT
ROLL TIDE ROLL

trench1978 · Sep 2, 2003

I don't think the over/under is particularly low. The Dolphins obviously have a very good defense, so the Texans shouldn't manage much more than a touchdown. I could see the game ending with a score of 28-3 or something like that and hitting the under. If I HAD to pick the over/under, though, I'd choose the over with 35 points.

I see the Fins scoring about 35 points themselves.

Trench

Rattler+ · Sep 2, 2003

The low over/under is because Houston isn't expected to score many points. The over/under is risky here. Houston could easily score 13 via 1 TD and a couple FG's. A lucky INT run back for a TD, a backdoor TD or FG, and who knows? Over/under could go either way. I would NEVER give 13+ points to any team on opening day. Look what Houston did last year! Miami SHOULD win huge, but I wouldn't touch a 13+ point spread on any day, let alone opening day. Regardless of my thoughts, all the numbers point to a big Miami win. I ain't touching it myself at that number, but I hope it comes through for you!

SpaciousK · Sep 3, 2003

It would be a large mistake to count out the Texans in this one. The Phins have chalked this one up, and will be looking forward to Week 2 in the Meadowlands vs. the team that squeaked in underneath them last year.

Nothing final here, but the Texans are one of my favorite early week leans.

Good luck

trench1978 · Sep 3, 2003

I'm surprised you think that the Dolphins are looking ahead to Week 2. When is the last time that a team looked past their first game of the season and lost a game they should have won? It just doesn't seem to be something that a well-rounded, well-coached NFL franchise would do.

Do you consider the Dolphins to be a high quality NFL franchise? Because I do...

Trench